Ayni — terraced-hillside reciprocity mark
Ayni
Sacred exchange, made visible
doayni.com
← Analysis
The thumb on the lever, not the market
A lot of what gets described as "the market decided" is actually a specific, dated policy choice overriding what the market would have decided on its own. Two live examples, one in food and one in energy, where a program built to protect a large group of small producers now moves most of its money to a small group of large ones -- and where power plants that lose money every year keep running anyway, because someone besides the market is paying to keep them open.

The basics first: what "market-driven" actually means, so the contrast is clear. In a market-driven outcome, a producer that can't sell its output for more than it costs to make eventually stops making it, and capital moves to whatever can. That's the mechanism behind plenty of real change already documented on this site -- venture capital becoming an industry when two policy decisions made new capital available, or necessity-driven entrepreneurship when job scarcity pushes people into starting businesses. Both of those are markets responding to a changed environment. The two mechanisms below are a different thing entirely: a standing subsidy or a standing bailout holding an outcome in place that the market, left alone, would already have changed.

Mechanism one: farm subsidies, built for the many, flowing to the few The federal farm subsidy system traces to the New Deal, built at a time when roughly a quarter of Americans lived on small family farms, as a program to stabilize prices and protect a very large, very vulnerable group of small producers from bad years. The producer base it was built for has largely disappeared -- and the money increasingly hasn't followed it out. In 2023, the top 10% of commodity subsidy recipients collected about 74% of all payments. In 2024, that concentration eased only slightly: the top 10% still collected 65%, and the top 1% alone took in 23%, averaging over $100,000 per recipient. Then the 2025 federal budget bill raised the per-person payment limit from $125,000 to $155,000 -- a change that, because payments are tied to production volume, mechanically benefits the largest operations most, since only the largest farms produce enough to hit the old cap in the first place. A program originally justified by the vulnerability of the smallest producers now moves most of its money to the largest ones, by the design of the payment formula itself, not by market outcome.
Mechanism two: coal plants that lose money, kept open anyway Cheap natural gas, tightening environmental rules on older plants, and cheaper renewables have made a growing number of American coal plants genuinely uneconomic -- they cost more to run than the power they generate is worth. In a market-driven system, that's the exact signal that closes a plant. Instead, in Ohio, state legislation extended a ratepayer-funded bailout of two aging coal plants through 2030, applied to every ratepayer in the state regardless of who their actual electric provider is -- an estimated $200 million in 2024 alone, with total costs projected to exceed $1 billion by 2030. In Michigan, the J.H. Campbell plant is losing more than $600,000 a day, with those losses passed on to households and businesses across 11 Midwest states through a federal order keeping it open past its planned retirement. At the federal level, the administration has committed $625-700 million to prop up aging coal plants nationwide, alongside opening more than 13 million acres of public land to new coal mining and cutting the royalty rates mining companies pay. An independent analysis found that forcing already-scheduled coal retirements to keep running could cost ratepayers more than $3 billion a year nationally. None of that is the market choosing coal. It's ratepayers and taxpayers being required to pay the gap between what the market would pay for that power and what it costs to make it.
Mechanism three: the coasts produce, the interior receives -- the actual origin of "flyover" A third version of the same non-market pattern runs underneath both of the others, and it's the mechanism behind a phrase most Americans use without knowing where it comes from. The federal government doesn't just tax and spend nationally -- it moves money between states by the ordinary operation of that tax-and-spend system, and the direction of that flow runs largely coast-to-interior. The Rockefeller Institute of Government tracks this every year as each state's "balance of payments": what a state's residents pay in federal taxes versus what flows back in federal spending. California -- the country's largest, most productive state economy -- sent about $17 billion more to Washington than it received back in 2023, excluding pandemic relief. Kentucky, by contrast, received $21.3 billion in federal funding that same year, a large net inflow relative to the size of its economy. New Mexico ran a $18,878 per-capita surplus, Hawaii $15,945, Virginia $15,159 -- the federal government spending far more in those states than their residents paid in. In most conventional (non-pandemic) years, the donor list is short and coastal -- historically states like California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Connecticut -- while the recipient list is long and runs through the interior South, Appalachia, and the Mountain West. "Flyover country" started as air-travel shorthand for the states between the coasts that a coast-to-coast flight passes over without landing in. The balance-of-payments pattern is the economic version of the same geography: the same interior states a coastal flier passes over are disproportionately the ones whose public spending is being carried by the coasts' tax base. Not a market outcome -- an aggregate, decades-old effect of how defense spending, federal retirement and disability programs, Medicaid's matching-fund formula (the federal government pays a share of each state's Medicaid costs, a bigger share for poorer states), and federal employment happen to be geographically distributed, adding up every year to a real transfer that almost no one votes on as a single line item. Real market capital moves in the opposite direction, which is what makes the pattern worth naming rather than assuming: venture capital, the closest thing to a pure market signal for where investors think the next decade of growth will come from, is even more coast-concentrated than the tax dollars are. California alone drew 63% of all US venture funding in 2024 and 64% in 2025; add New York's roughly 11% and Massachusetts' 5-8%, and three coastal states account for close to 80% of the country's actual growth capital. So the two flows run opposite directions at once: the market pulls investment capital toward the coasts by choice, while the federal tax-and-spend system pushes public dollars toward the interior by formula. Both are real. Neither is "the market decided everything" or "the government decided everything" -- it's two different mechanisms, pulling different kinds of money in opposite directions, at the same time, in the same country.

Why these three, together, are worth naming as one pattern. Farm subsidies and coal bailouts sit on opposite ends of the political map in how they're usually talked about -- one gets framed as protecting rural livelihoods, the other as protecting energy jobs and grid reliability. The actual mechanism underneath both is identical: a real market signal (which crops pay, which power plants are economical) is being overridden by policy, and the money for that override is coming from people -- taxpayers in the farm case, ratepayers in the coal case -- who have no direct say in the specific decision. That's not inherently wrong; there are real arguments for smoothing volatile commodity prices or keeping a regional grid stable during a transition. But it means "the market decided this" is the wrong description for either outcome, and treating it as market-driven hides who's actually paying and why.

65%
of 2024 farm subsidy payments went to the top 10% of recipients
$1B+
projected ratepayer cost of Ohio's coal bailout through 2030
$18,878
New Mexico's per-capita federal spending surplus, highest in the country

This connects to a broader thread already on this site: who's actually on the lever when an outcome looks structural or inevitable, and the same abdication of a formal check when Congress or a regulator declines to use the power it actually has. A subsidy formula and a bailout order are smaller, more mundane versions of the same thing -- a specific, named, dated decision standing in for what would otherwise look like a neutral outcome.

Who's on the lever Congress writes the payment-limit formula in each Farm Bill and its budget reconciliation bills (a fast-track budget process that only needs a simple majority, not the usual 60 votes) -- the 2025 increase from $125,000 to $155,000 per person is a specific, dated, roll-call decision, not a market drift. State legislatures and public utility commissions, in Ohio's case, voted to extend a specific ratepayer surcharge through 2030. Federal energy regulators issued the order keeping the Campbell plant in Michigan open past its retirement date. Each of these is a named body making a specific choice at a specific time -- the opposite of an anonymous market outcome, even though the resulting price or bill often gets described as if it were one.
Sources