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Hazard Risk Per Resident — By Metro
The same FEMA data, ranked by expected annual loss per resident instead of the county total -- so a small county with real exposure isn't buried under a handful of huge ones. Shown alongside Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience: what actually separates a bad storm from a catastrophe.
A raw total rewards scale — a huge county racks up a bigger number partly because there's simply more there to lose, not because any one resident faces more danger. Dividing by population fixes that. But the dollar figure alone still isn't the whole story: Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience are what actually separate a bad storm from a catastrophe — Hurricane Katrina made landfall as "only" a strong Category 3, and it became the deadliest disaster in this dataset's memory because of who could evacuate and whether the levees held, not because the wind was unsurvivable. Money buys mobility — a car, a place to go, the ability to miss work — so Lack of Reliable Transportation (the share of adults without it) is shown alongside as the closest available read on who actually can't leave. A high resilience score today can reflect real rebuilding since a past disaster, not a claim that the disaster didn't happen.

A small county landing near the top of this list isn't a math artifact to wave away — it's a different kind of signal than a big county in the same spot. The same dollar total that would barely register against Los Angeles's economy can be a meaningful share of a small county's whole tax base, workforce, or population. A high per-resident number in a small place isn't necessarily "this individual is in more danger" — it's closer to "one bad year could reshape this place's economy or its culture," which a huge, diverse county can absorb in a way a small one can't. Population is shown for every row so you can read the number in that context, not to discount it.
51 metros ranked, highest expected loss per resident first
# Metro Expected Loss / Resident / Yr Population Counties Social Vulnerability Community Resilience Lacks Transportation
1 Alaska $1,279 735,706 30 27.1 26.2 9.3%
2 Silicon Valley $929 9,107,604 13 28.2 73.8 8.1%
3 Monterey $920 437,613 1 54.8 24.7 11.5%
4 New Orleans $880 981,662 7 68.1 98.7 11.7%
5 Bozeman & Greater Yellowstone $812 184,738 7 20.1 67.1 6.5%
6 Baton Rouge $751 875,313 10 56.5 62.9 10.9%
7 Hawaii $744 1,445,235 5 31.9 65.6 8.1%
8 Greater Los Angeles $734 12,974,487 2 47.9 14.2 9.7%
9 California $728 11,281,795 40 44.3 35.0 10.5%
10 Greater St. Louis $713 2,810,850 15 29.8 79.2 8.0%
11 Iowa $692 1,961,051 88 28.1 82.5 7.5%
12 Montana $689 932,137 49 34.0 56.8 8.4%
13 Nebraska $676 1,978,707 93 19.5 72.3 7.0%
14 Missouri $672 2,755,527 99 39.4 53.4 9.4%
15 Louisiana $663 2,754,986 47 68.0 62.1 12.2%
16 Illinois $623 2,861,906 80 43.4 81.0 8.6%
17 Arkansas $622 2,471,665 72 64.4 43.1 10.7%
18 Minnesota $622 1,999,896 73 32.4 89.1 8.1%
19 Mississippi $556 2,946,779 82 68.5 52.9 12.5%
20 Kentucky $544 4,081,359 114 52.4 58.0 —
21 Lehigh Valley (Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton) $517 110,849 1 12.2 79.2 6.9%
22 Florida $494 10,068,349 56 52.4 40.3 —
23 Alabama $493 5,086,768 67 58.5 59.9 10.3%
24 the Sun Belt — Arizona $488 7,378,838 15 40.5 16.9 9.2%
25 the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City Corridor $485 455,824 5 14.8 96.3 6.8%
26 Colorado $480 1,812,743 51 25.8 48.1 —
27 Greater San Diego $468 3,288,774 1 24.8 8.3 8.3%
28 Greater Chicago $447 9,371,595 13 42.6 75.5 8.4%
29 New Mexico $444 1,362,014 18 57.2 24.4 11.8%
30 Nevada $431 3,184,612 17 42.0 12.6 10.4%
31 Kansas City $410 2,218,142 14 21.4 65.8 7.8%
32 Northwest Arkansas $404 577,726 3 23.5 39.1 8.2%
33 Idaho (Boise) $397 1,934,262 44 21.3 54.9 7.8%
34 Boulder $381 328,961 1 11.4 91.2 —
35 Georgia $367 4,383,151 129 52.2 40.6 11.1%
36 Ames $359 100,466 1 12.9 86.8 6.8%
37 the Twin Cities $348 3,575,051 13 16.7 96.3 7.1%
38 Cincinnati $334 533,578 9 15.7 69.1 6.7%
39 New York City $331 6,955,289 12 47.4 61.7 7.7%
40 Tampa Bay $320 3,304,691 4 45.1 20.8 —
41 Greater Miami / South Florida $319 6,249,291 3 65.4 38.8 —
42 Des Moines $318 693,166 5 16.3 92.1 6.7%
43 Indianapolis $314 2,151,989 11 27.4 69.6 7.7%
44 Denver $313 3,002,721 10 14.5 60.8 —
45 Philadelphia $312 2,050,212 6 30.2 80.7 7.9%
46 Michigan $300 5,331,111 76 38.0 86.3 8.5%
47 Greater Orlando $274 2,793,746 4 31.2 44.5 —
48 Detroit $265 4,376,828 6 43.4 75.5 9.3%
49 Greater Atlanta $233 6,256,377 29 21.4 41.0 8.9%
50 New England $205 4,953,354 7 26.4 91.9 7.4%
51 the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) $194 3,164,572 5 32.0 62.4 8.1%