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Hazard Risk Per Resident — By Metro
The same FEMA data, ranked by expected annual loss per resident instead of the county total -- so a small county with real exposure isn't buried under a handful of huge ones. Shown alongside Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience: what actually separates a bad storm from a catastrophe.
A raw total rewards scale — a huge county racks up a bigger number partly because there's simply more there to lose, not because any one resident faces more danger. Dividing by population fixes that. But the dollar figure alone still isn't the whole story: Social Vulnerability and Community Resilience are what actually separate a bad storm from a catastrophe — Hurricane Katrina made landfall as "only" a strong Category 3, and it became the deadliest disaster in this dataset's memory because of who could evacuate and whether the levees held, not because the wind was unsurvivable. Money buys mobility — a car, a place to go, the ability to miss work — so Lack of Reliable Transportation (the share of adults without it) is shown alongside as the closest available read on who actually can't leave. A high resilience score today can reflect real rebuilding since a past disaster, not a claim that the disaster didn't happen.

A small county landing near the top of this list isn't a math artifact to wave away — it's a different kind of signal than a big county in the same spot. The same dollar total that would barely register against Los Angeles's economy can be a meaningful share of a small county's whole tax base, workforce, or population. A high per-resident number in a small place isn't necessarily "this individual is in more danger" — it's closer to "one bad year could reshape this place's economy or its culture," which a huge, diverse county can absorb in a way a small one can't. Population is shown for every row so you can read the number in that context, not to discount it.
51 metros ranked, highest expected loss per resident first
# Metro Expected Loss / Resident / Yr Population Counties Social Vulnerability Community Resilience Lacks Transportation
1 Alaska $1,282 733,971 30 27.2 26.3 9.3%
2 Silicon Valley $929 9,101,124 13 28.2 73.9 8.1%
3 Monterey $923 435,834 1 54.8 24.7 11.5%
4 New Orleans $874 988,763 7 68.1 98.7 11.7%
5 Bozeman & Greater Yellowstone $825 181,885 7 20.1 67.1 6.5%
6 Baton Rouge $754 871,379 10 56.6 62.9 10.9%
7 Hawaii $744 1,445,635 5 31.8 65.6 8.1%
8 Greater Los Angeles $732 13,012,469 2 48.0 14.2 9.7%
9 California $731 11,222,760 40 44.3 35.0 10.4%
10 Greater St. Louis $714 2,809,414 15 29.9 79.1 8.1%
11 Montana $696 923,187 49 34.0 56.8 8.4%
12 Iowa $692 1,961,498 88 28.2 82.5 7.5%
13 Nebraska $680 1,965,926 93 19.5 72.2 7.0%
14 Missouri $675 2,743,854 99 39.5 53.4 9.4%
15 Louisiana $662 2,760,883 47 68.1 62.0 12.2%
16 Minnesota $623 1,994,110 73 32.4 89.1 8.1%
17 Arkansas $622 2,469,215 72 64.5 43.0 10.7%
18 Illinois $621 2,871,607 80 43.4 81.0 8.6%
19 Mississippi $555 2,951,438 82 68.7 52.9 12.5%
20 Kentucky $547 4,061,369 114 52.5 57.9
21 Lehigh Valley (Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton) $519 110,238 1 12.2 79.2 6.9%
22 Florida $506 9,828,514 56 52.4 40.3
23 Alabama $496 5,054,253 67 58.7 59.8 10.3%
24 the Sun Belt — Arizona $495 7,268,175 15 40.5 16.9 9.2%
25 the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City Corridor $488 453,380 5 14.9 96.3 6.8%
26 Colorado $483 1,801,100 51 25.8 48.1
27 Greater San Diego $469 3,282,782 1 24.8 8.3 8.3%
28 Greater Chicago $447 9,359,555 13 42.6 75.5 8.4%
29 New Mexico $444 1,360,601 18 57.2 24.5 11.8%
30 Nevada $437 3,141,000 17 41.9 12.6 10.4%
31 Northwest Arkansas $414 563,436 3 23.5 39.0 8.2%
32 Kansas City $413 2,202,006 14 21.5 65.7 7.8%
33 Idaho (Boise) $405 1,893,296 44 21.3 54.9 7.8%
34 Boulder $382 328,317 1 11.4 91.2
35 Georgia $370 4,347,510 129 52.3 40.6 11.1%
36 Ames $366 98,592 1 12.9 86.8 6.8%
37 the Twin Cities $350 3,556,181 13 16.7 96.3 7.1%
38 Cincinnati $337 529,106 9 15.7 69.1 6.7%
39 New York City $334 6,892,890 12 47.4 61.8 7.7%
40 Tampa Bay $326 3,240,469 4 45.2 20.8
41 Greater Miami / South Florida $324 6,138,876 3 65.4 38.8
42 Des Moines $323 682,467 5 16.3 92.1 6.7%
43 Indianapolis $317 2,128,089 11 27.5 69.4 7.7%
44 Denver $315 2,977,085 10 14.5 60.8
45 Philadelphia $315 2,035,141 6 30.2 80.7 7.9%
46 Michigan $300 5,315,581 76 38.0 86.3 8.5%
47 Greater Orlando $282 2,721,022 4 31.2 44.6
48 Detroit $266 4,367,620 6 43.4 75.4 9.3%
49 Greater Atlanta $236 6,176,937 29 21.5 41.0 8.9%
50 New England $207 4,917,661 7 26.5 91.9 7.4%
51 the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) $196 3,134,300 5 32.1 62.3 8.1%