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Hazard Risk — By Metro
FEMA's National Risk Index score -- how exposed a county is to natural hazards (hurricane, wildfire, flooding, and 15 others), weighted by how well-resourced the community is to recover. Higher score means more risk.
Notice the biggest counties in America — Los Angeles, Cook (Chicago), Harris (Houston) — sit at the very top. That's not a coincidence, and it's not a warning to avoid big cities: this score is built from total expected loss, which grows with how many people and how much property a county has, not just how likely a bad event is for any one resident. A huge county racks up a high score partly because there's simply more there to lose, not because life there is more dangerous person-for-person than a smaller county with a similar rating. What genuinely distinguishes counties is which hazards drive the number (a coastal county's hurricane exposure vs. an inland one's earthquake or wildfire exposure) and how ready each community is to recover — not the raw score alone. It's also not a prediction that anything will happen this year, and not a measure of whether damage has already been repaired — a county can score lower here while a specific storm has still left real, unfinished recovery behind, especially where it hit hardest. Read the score as "how much this place has to absorb over time," not as a ranking of where's safe to live.
42 metros ranked, highest risk first
# Metro Risk Score Counties Top Hazards
1 Greater Los Angeles 100.0 2 Earthquake (100.0) Inland Flooding (100.0) Wildfire (99.9)
2 Greater San Diego 99.7 1 Wildfire (100.0) Inland Flooding (99.8) Earthquake (99.7)
3 Las Vegas 99.6 1 Heat Wave (100.0) Inland Flooding (99.6) Wildfire (99.0)
4 Greater Miami / South Florida 99.5 3 Hurricane (99.9) Lightning (99.9) Inland Flooding (99.2)
5 Seattle 99.0 3 Earthquake (99.8) Inland Flooding (98.6) Volcanic Activity (98.4)
6 Silicon Valley 98.8 13 Earthquake (99.6) Inland Flooding (98.5) Heat Wave (95.0)
7 Monterey 98.7 1 Drought (99.9) Earthquake (99.3) Landslide (99.1)
8 the Sun Belt — Arizona 97.7 15 Wildfire (98.0) Inland Flooding (97.6) Heat Wave (96.8)
9 Houston 97.5 10 Tornado (99.1) Lightning (98.8) Hurricane (98.3)
10 Tampa Bay 97.5 4 Lightning (98.8) Hurricane (98.7) Tornado (98.5)
11 Greater Chicago 97.0 13 Cold Wave (99.5) Tornado (99.1) Inland Flooding (98.0)
12 New York City 96.7 22 Strong Wind (98.2) Inland Flooding (97.5) Winter Weather (97.3)
13 Dallas 96.6 7 Hail (99.5) Tornado (98.9) Heat Wave (98.6)
14 Fort Worth 96.0 4 Tornado (98.9) Heat Wave (98.2) Hail (97.9)
15 Greater San Antonio 95.7 8 Hail (97.7) Inland Flooding (96.8) Tornado (96.5)
16 Detroit 95.7 6 Cold Wave (98.7) Tornado (98.6) Strong Wind (98.5)
17 Greater Orlando 95.3 4 Strong Wind (99.2) Lightning (98.7) Tornado (97.9)
18 New Orleans 94.9 7 Hurricane (98.9) Heat Wave (92.6) Lightning (92.2)
19 Portland — the Silicon Forest 94.5 7 Earthquake (98.8) Heat Wave (96.5) Inland Flooding (94.0)
20 Philadelphia 94.5 11 Winter Weather (98.9) Heat Wave (97.2) Inland Flooding (96.6)
21 Austin 93.8 5 Hail (98.3) Tornado (97.8) Inland Flooding (96.4)
22 New England 93.1 7 Inland Flooding (96.2) Lightning (94.6) Earthquake (93.6)
23 Greater St. Louis 92.1 15 Heat Wave (97.5) Earthquake (96.2) Tornado (95.0)
24 Boulder 90.7 1 Lightning (99.4) Hail (98.7) Wildfire (98.5)
25 Denver 90.5 10 Hail (99.3) Lightning (98.3) Tornado (95.5)
26 Pittsburgh 89.6 8 Inland Flooding (95.0) Lightning (91.0) Landslide (85.9)
27 Baton Rouge 89.3 10 Hurricane (95.5) Tornado (93.2) Heat Wave (90.1)
28 Northwest Arkansas 89.0 3 Ice Storm (99.7) Heat Wave (97.0) Winter Weather (95.8)
29 Greater Cleveland 88.4 6 Winter Weather (93.9) Strong Wind (92.8) Inland Flooding (92.5)
30 Spokane 87.6 2 Wildfire (97.0) Cold Wave (95.5) Ice Storm (94.2)
31 the Research Triangle 86.5 10 Tornado (91.8) Heat Wave (91.7) Inland Flooding (90.4)
32 the Twin Cities 85.9 15 Strong Wind (97.0) Hail (96.9) Tornado (95.7)
33 Nashville 84.8 14 Tornado (93.0) Earthquake (92.9) Cold Wave (90.6)
34 Greater Columbus 84.7 10 Hail (92.7) Inland Flooding (91.9) Winter Weather (90.0)
35 Youngstown 84.0 2 Strong Wind (92.8) Hail (92.2) Tornado (88.9)
36 Greater Atlanta 83.3 29 Tornado (92.8) Lightning (91.8) Hail (90.4)
37 the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) 82.8 23 Heat Wave (93.8) Lightning (92.9) Strong Wind (92.9)
38 Richland 82.5 2 Wildfire (93.4) Heat Wave (92.8) Earthquake (88.6)
39 Upstate New York 80.6 52 Inland Flooding (88.8) Ice Storm (79.2) Lightning (77.6)
40 Idaho (Boise) 65.8 44 Wildfire (91.6) Winter Weather (84.7) Heat Wave (79.1)
41 Bozeman & Greater Yellowstone 64.0 13 Landslide (93.2) Avalanche (91.6) Wildfire (90.8)
42 Walla Walla 60.4 1 Earthquake (89.5) Ice Storm (89.4) Wildfire (84.2)
Not shown above: 88 counties where FEMA marks the underlying data insufficient to score — not a zero-risk reading, just no number to rank. See the Data page for source coverage.