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Everything I've read closely enough to write down — essays, arguments, and the occasional rant, all of it sourced.
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The dark matter experiment inside an old gold mine
August 12, 2026 · 3 min read
A mile underground, in a hole dug for gold, sits one of the most sensitive physics experiments on Earth -- and the largest neutrino experiment ever built anywhere is currently…
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Why your credit card bill comes from Sioux Falls
August 12, 2026 · 3 min read
In February 1980, a broke state and a bank losing money on credit cards made a secret deal. South Dakota repealed its own interest-rate caps. Citibank moved its credit card…
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The chokepoint doesn't care why it was built
August 12, 2026 · 5 min read
A government-sanctioned monopoly built the phone network you still dial through. A theocracy built two gateways that carry all of a country's internet. A one-party state built…
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Who preserves the record
August 11, 2026 · 4 min read
Three storytellers, working in two completely different disciplines, have each shaped what a huge number of Americans believe is true about a place, an era, or a people. Two of…
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Two kinds of memory, one process
August 11, 2026 · 5 min read
One kind of memory is built in order, one book or one year at a time, with judgment earned by having been wrong before. The other is built flat and all at once, comprehensive but…
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The African version of "birth of civilization"
August 11, 2026 · 4 min read
The standard American classroom runs the origin story one way: Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece, Rome -- and even Egypt usually gets taught as adjacent to Africa rather than of it.…
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Texas and California were Mexican
August 11, 2026 · 3 min read
Texas, California, Nevada, Utah, most of Arizona and New Mexico, and pieces of Colorado and Wyoming were Mexican national territory, governed from Mexico City, until the US took…
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Lived, not adopted
August 11, 2026 · 3 min read
Growing food and being a farmer are not the same thing. The distinction isn't modesty -- it's the whole argument. Almost everything anyone knows about the world falls into one of…
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Get in where you fit in
August 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Three career choices, thirty years apart, opened three unrelated rooms -- a Navy oceanographic command, the New York publishing world, repeated trips to France. None was chosen…
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Where we look, whose culture we grieve
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
In 2015, ISIS destroyed monuments at Palmyra and UNESCO called it a war crime within days. Since 2023, Sudan's National Museum has lost more than 60% of the largest Nubian…
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Who's allowed in the room keeps changing, on purpose
August 10, 2026 · 3 min read
A 1975 garage in Menlo Park was open to whoever showed up. The room that decides who gets to found a billion-dollar American company today has different admission rules entirely…
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The US already tried this once, and lost
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
In 2002 the US put tariffs on steel, the WTO ruled against them, and the government repealed its own policy under threat of $2 billion in sanctions -- the largest penalty the WTO…
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Nobody bailed out South Bend, so the law changed instead
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
Chrysler got a government rescue in 1979. GM got one in 2009. Studebaker, once the country's fourth-largest automaker, got eleven days' notice and nothing else in December 1963…
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The NPR fight and the ABC fight are the same fight
August 10, 2026 · 5 min read
"Soda" versus "pop" is proof that local shorthand is real, and exactly what national media structurally can't carry. Congress defunded public broadcasting, the FCC let one…
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Four yards, four different reasons none of them closed
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
American shipbuilding collapsed everywhere except four places -- and it survived in each one for a completely different reason. A trade law from 1920, a monopoly on knowledge…
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Fifty-one companies, one dinner, five left standing
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
In 1993 the Pentagon told the CEOs of America's 51 defense contractors, over dinner, to go consolidate. By decade's end, five were left, including Boeing and Lockheed Martin -- a…
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Door by door is how society changes
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
In February 2004, a self-funded millionaire was leading a little-known Illinois state senator by 9 points. Barack Obama won that primary outright, 53% to 24%, on the same…
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You can't build tanks if you can't build cars
August 10, 2026 · 5 min read
The Jeep Wrangler in driveways today isn't inspired by a WWII military vehicle -- it's the same design lineage, unbroken, from a 1940 Army contract. The Humvee's civilian spinoff…
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Being in the room
August 10, 2026 · 4 min read
Steve Wozniak didn't design the Apple I because he was smarter than everyone who didn't. He designed it because he was in a garage in Menlo Park on March 5, 1975, and thirty-one…
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The government took equity in four companies this year. Private capital did not wait for permission.
August 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Four companies, one new industrial-policy tool -- and private capital did not move in a consistent order relative to the government stakes.
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The rejected 1976 paper sitting inside the steepest line on the Fed's own chart
August 9, 2026 · 2 min read
A Nobel laureate said it couldn't be done. Forty-four years later it's a real, traceable input into how fast the 2020 labor market recovered.
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Ray Dalio's cycle is real -- but it never explains why the collapse happened on a specific Tuesday
August 9, 2026 · 2 min read
Four empires, one measurable cycle, three thousand years -- and every hinge was still one person's decision. Both halves matter for timing.
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Why a sector clusters where it does -- and which lever actually explains your target region
August 9, 2026 · 1 min read
Geography, government, and culture compete to explain why an industry clusters in one place. Two real cases show the weighting is never the same twice.
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Two-thirds of the founders you're meeting didn't choose this -- they were pushed into it
August 9, 2026 · 1 min read
Job scarcity, not opportunity, is now the majority reason Americans start a business -- and the share is still rising, not holding steady.
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The founder you're meeting at 28 and the founder who actually breaks out at 45
August 9, 2026 · 1 min read
Two real datasets on founder age point in opposite directions -- and knowing which one you're looking at changes how you should read a pitch.
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A funding round doesn't get more real the fourth time someone reports it
August 9, 2026 · 3 min read
We found a single $65 billion round logged four times in our own data. Why that's not just a bug -- and what it says about signal vs. noise in venture capital.
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Fifty years of venture capital's own boom-bust cycle -- and the lesson our industry keeps re-learning
August 9, 2026 · 4 min read
Venture capital wasn't always an industry. Two 1978 policy decisions created it -- the boom-bust pattern from then still shapes where capital moves today.
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What happened vs. what got attention
August 9, 2026 · 3 min read
A single $65 billion funding round showed up four separate times in this site's own database, at four different dates, from four different mentions. That wasn't an error to fix…
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The equity stake used to be rare — three precedents explain why it's back
August 9, 2026 · 9 min read
Since July 2025 the federal government has taken direct equity positions in at least four companies -- Intel, MP Materials, GlobalFoundries, and Westinghouse. That looks…
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Flying cars vs. 140 characters
August 9, 2026 · 3 min read
In the same summer of 2011, two venture capitalists published opposite theses about what their own industry was actually funding. Fifteen years of real deal data since then have…
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Power over principle
August 8, 2026 · 4 min read
A federal officeholder can disagree with a Supreme Court ruling. Disagreeing is not the same act as refusing to be bound by it while still holding the office whose oath requires…
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Same government, eleven times apart
August 8, 2026 · 2 min read
Loudoun County, Virginia and Las Marías, Puerto Rico are both counted by the same Census Bureau, governed by the same federal government, and paid in the same currency. Median…
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Who actually holds these truths
August 7, 2026 · 4 min read
"We hold these truths to be self-evident" puts the verb on the individual, not the government -- and that word choice, checked against the actual draft, was deliberate. A truth a…
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Culture builds the heroes it needs
August 7, 2026 · 3 min read
A hero myth isn't invented at random. It answers whatever a society is actually afraid of, at the moment it's afraid of it -- and this isn't a 20th-century comic-book pattern.…
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Who decides what becomes common knowledge
August 6, 2026 · 3 min read
One book built on a racially charged, statistically framed argument about intelligence became a bestseller everyone has heard of. A serious, well-published academic rebuttal,…
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Who created whom: the states, the federal government, and everything in between
August 6, 2026 · 7 min read
The states existed first, called the convention, and ratified the document that created the federal government -- not the other way around. That single fact of sequence still…
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Absorbing and unleashing talent is what built America
August 6, 2026 · 6 min read
America defines itself by a creed, not blood or soil -- which means anyone the creed was supposed to cover but wasn't can hold the country to its own stated word. The Great…
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The thumb on the lever, not the market
August 6, 2026 · 6 min read
A lot of what gets described as "the market decided" is actually a specific, dated policy choice overriding what the market would have decided on its own -- one in food, one in…
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Three guardrails, and why they're not holding
August 6, 2026 · 5 min read
The founders didn't build the Constitution to prevent one danger -- they built it against two at once, a tyrannical majority and a tyrannical minority, using the same design…
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The arc, not the cycle
August 6, 2026 · 3 min read
Most of what shapes daily life optimizes for what fits inside one term, one quarter, one fiscal year. Almost everything that actually lasts was built by someone deliberately…
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One person, one vote -- except in the Senate, the Electoral College, and DC
August 6, 2026 · 11 min read
The three federal bodies that decide who governs the country don't weigh a person's vote the same way. One badly. One better, but with a real gap of its own. One so unevenly that…
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One tradition, not scattered names — the Black American literary canon, Harlem to now
August 6, 2026 · 5 min read
Most Americans encounter this canon as isolated excerpts, if at all: a poem here, a novel assigned once. It's a single, continuously rebuilt tradition spanning a century, where…
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These fields were never separate from American history to begin with
August 6, 2026 · 3 min read
Susan B. Anthony, Ida B. Wells, and Marcus Garvey are as much a part of American history as Grant, Coolidge, and Patton -- not adjacent to the main story, the main story. The…
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Lived places displaced by power
August 6, 2026 · 3 min read
A university expands, a highway gets built, a reservoir gets filled -- and a real, lived community disappears from underneath it, sometimes twice, fifty years apart, at the same…
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Known knowns, and why the joke didn't age the way people expected
August 6, 2026 · 4 min read
A defense secretary said a confusing-sounding sentence at a 2002 press briefing and won a "Foot in Mouth" award for it the same year. The underlying framework, separated from the…
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You enter one way, you emerge as something else
August 6, 2026 · 9 min read
Peter denied Jesus three times and was restored anyway. Paul persecuted Christians before becoming its most consequential missionary. A slave trader wrote "Amazing Grace." Five…
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A lush green golf course in Scottsdale in July should have been impossible — here's why it wasn't
August 6, 2026 · 5 min read
The Colorado River is over-allocated by a 1922 legal compact, running through a multi-year drought, cut back by the federal government three years running. And a golf course in…
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The tax nobody sees you paying
August 6, 2026 · 5 min read
Two ways to say the exact same thing: "no fronting" and "do not pretend." One is publishable in a formal paper. The other isn't -- not because it's less true, but because of who…
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The federal agency that manages more land than any other, and that most Americans couldn't name
August 6, 2026 · 3 min read
The Bureau of Land Management controls 245 million acres -- one-tenth of the entire country, three times more than the National Park Service. Yellowstone and Yosemite are…
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The banjo was never a hillbilly instrument
August 6, 2026 · 3 min read
An instrument built from memory, not brought on a ship -- carried in the heads of enslaved Africans who couldn't bring the object itself, then rebuilt in the Americas from…
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Why Appalachian whites are not New England whites
August 6, 2026 · 5 min read
Crime statistics and educational outcomes get read as if "white" were one uniform baseline everyone else gets measured against. It isn't. Massachusetts has the highest median…
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What school lunch actually costs — one price to make it, three mechanisms for what you pay
August 5, 2026 · 4 min read
Making a school lunch costs about the same $3.99 almost everywhere. What a family is charged for it swings from free to $5.50 a tray, and the gap isn't regional cost of living --…
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Forced to take that route — necessity, not opportunity, is now the majority reason Americans start a business
August 5, 2026 · 2 min read
Two-thirds of new entrepreneurs in the latest national survey cite job scarcity as their reason for starting a business, not a good idea they couldn't pass up -- and that share…
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Forty-four years — from a paper a Nobel laureate said was impossible to a line on this site's own chart
August 5, 2026 · 3 min read
In 1976, a Nobel-winning chemist told a young MIT engineer his idea couldn't work. He kept trying anyway. Forty-four years later, what came out of that persistence became a…
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Two curves, one word — "entrepreneur" means something different depending which chart you're reading
August 5, 2026 · 3 min read
The survey that measures who's starting things says 18-24 year-olds, at the highest rate on record. The Census-linked research that measures who actually builds something that…
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America doesn't feel one way — Reston is not South Boston
August 5, 2026 · 4 min read
The median household in Newark earns $52,060 a year. In the same country, Palo Alto's median household earns $231,101 -- 4.4 times as much. One national unemployment number, one…
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Why so many more degrees — government, the market, access, and prosperity, pulling at once
August 4, 2026 · 4 min read
The US population grew 1.6x since 1970. Bachelor's degrees grew 2.7x. That gap isn't population -- it's four separate forces, each with its own date and its own mechanism, that…
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Who does which work — four ways the arc bends, and one that takes a generation
August 4, 2026 · 3 min read
Government put a Black man in the Cabinet two decades before industry put one in a corner office. A nursing school in Alabama is recruiting men into scrubs right now. Rosie the…
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Same trade, different ratios — why the US, Brazil, and Haiti look nothing alike today
August 4, 2026 · 4 min read
The US received 4% of the transatlantic slave trade and grew its own population through birth; Brazil received 40% and needed constant new arrivals because plantation mortality…
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Sector migration — why Moab became mountain biking's home, and Downeast Maine stayed sailing's
August 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Three competing explanations for why a specific activity clusters in a specific place -- geography, government, and personal preference -- and which one actually carries the…
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Santa Fe — the only successful Native uprising against a European colonial power in North America
August 4, 2026 · 6 min read
In 1680 Pueblo peoples drove Spanish colonizers out of New Mexico for twelve years -- and the same small city later became a zoning-mandated tourist brand, the secret front door…
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Held to its own word — the founders' contradiction, and three men who answered it on its own terms
August 4, 2026 · 7 min read
Washington, Jefferson, and Hamilton each fell short of the country's own promise in a different, documented way -- and Douglass, King, and Malcolm X each answered that gap by…
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Who became "white," and when
August 2, 2026 · 3 min read
Irish, Italian, and Jewish Americans became "white" on three different timelines, through three different institutional mechanisms — proof it was a status, not a pigment.
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Why venture capital wasn't always an industry
August 2, 2026 · 3 min read
Two policy decisions, eighteen months apart, turned a boutique activity into an industry.
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US immigration patterns — the country didn't start at Plymouth Rock
August 2, 2026 · 2 min read
An English colony, and the first enslaved Africans brought to it, were both already in Virginia a decade before the story most Americans are taught even begins.
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One arc — why Newark, Detroit, and Harlem are the same story told three times
August 2, 2026 · 4 min read
The Great Migration, Ford's assembly line, and HBCUs explain all three cities at once, not three separate local stories.
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An $87 Billion Bill to Fund the Iran War Includes $1 Billion for a New York Train Station. Farmers Are Still Waiting on Theirs.
August 2, 2026 · 10 min read
The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. What actually determines who in America absorbs a war fought over it isn't the water -- it's a spending bill still sitting in Congress, and…
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Cycles and levers — why Egypt, Babylon, Rome, and Ming China all ran the same course
August 2, 2026 · 3 min read
Empires rise and fall on a real, roughly measurable cycle -- and every rise and every fall inside that cycle was still somebody's specific act of will on a specific day. They…
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Alaska and Hawaii Aren't California
July 30, 2026 · 3 min read
Alaska and Hawaii both report into the San Francisco Fed district — the same district that already dominates every national reading. Their own sentiment is invisible by…
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The District Isn't a Number
July 30, 2026 · 2 min read
A Fed district's sentiment reading looks like a bare data point — expanding, mixed, contracting. Underneath the label is population, money, and formation history that the word…
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What This Blog Is, and How Oluwadi Actually Gets Built
July 27, 2026 · 4 min read
Why this exists, how Oluwadi and Osparna share one graph behind two different doors, and an honest account of where AI does and doesn't get trusted in building and running both.
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Oluwadi is open now — no account, and anyone can add to it
July 27, 2026 · 2 min read
Oluwadi no longer requires an account, and anyone can propose a company, investor, university, or organization for inclusion.
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Introducing Oluwadi — the network, opened to read
June 27, 2026 · 3 min read
Oluwadi is live: a public, continuously updated way to read the U.S. venture network region by region and thesis by thesis. Why a region's single label hides more than it tells…
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Hallucination Driven Development: Why Desire Path Design Is the Future
February 1, 2026 · 3 min read
Steve Yegge stopped fighting his coding agent's 'hallucinations' and started building the commands it kept guessing at instead. That's just Convention over Configuration for the…
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The Two-Hour Specification
December 10, 2025 · 5 min read
How writing a genuinely detailed spec -- and following a Research/Plan/Implement discipline with Claude Code -- took a demo from a month down to five hours, and why "Vibe Coding"…
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Venture Capital Due Diligence Checklist: 6 Essential Steps
October 23, 2025 · 6 min read
The battle-tested framework we use ourselves to pressure-test a deal across eight domains -- team, product, financials, business model, traction, competition, and legal -- before…
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Technology Due Diligence Checklist: A 10-Point Investor Guide
October 23, 2025 · 7 min read
A field guide to technology due diligence, sharpened on the deals we've won and the ones we wisely walked away from -- architecture, security, infrastructure, IP, team, and…
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The AI Breakup: It's Not You. It's Me.
September 4, 2025 · 2 min read
AI adoption is in its honeymoon phase -- and some users are already forming emotional attachments to their chatbots. What that says about the MIT study on failed AI pilots, and…
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RTO -- At What Cost
November 6, 2024 · 2 min read
Fully remote jobs going back to the office doesn't correlate with productivity -- so why are large corporations doing it anyway? A look at what return-to-office is actually…
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We Know What to Look For, Because We Build
July 3, 2024 · 1 min read
Osparna's team builds things outside of work too -- and that's not incidental. It's exactly what makes the diligence sharper. I work with people I like.
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Who's on Your Team?
April 23, 2020 · 2 min read
Coachability, character, and the ability to work well in a distributed environment now matter more than raw technical expertise -- what COVID-era diligence is teaching investors…
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Moneyball for Investing
February 28, 2020 · 3 min read
Why "Moneyball for Investing" became our catchphrase, why it's the wrong analogy, and what Osparna actually is: the diary you keep to track what you were thinking when you made…
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How to Buy a...House
February 23, 2020 · 4 min read
Before Osparna focused on investors, the alpha version was general enough to score any decision -- including which house to buy. Here's how establish-weight-rate-review played…
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Managing Bias
February 3, 2020 · 3 min read
Biases underpin our intuition about investing, whether we admit it or not. Why declaring your criteria explicitly -- and being able to look back at what you decided and why -- is…
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Introducing Osparna
November 11, 2019 · 1 min read
The first post on osparna.com: why we built a platform to bring decision science to investing, and what to expect from this space going forward.
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